What Electric Car Convenience Is Worth

Results of one study show the electric car attributes that are most important for consumers: driving range, fuel cost savings and charging time. The results are based on a national survey conducted by the researchers, UD professors George Parsons, Willett Kempton and Meryl Gardner, and Michael Hidrue, who recently graduated from UD with a doctoral degree in economics. Lead author Hidrue conducted the research for his dissertation.

The study, which surveyed more than 3,000 people, showed what individuals would be willing to pay for various electric vehicle attributes. For example, as battery charging time decreases from 10 hours to five hours for a 50-mile charge, consumers' willingness to pay is about$427 per hour in reduction time. Drop charging time from five hours to one hour, and consumers would pay an estimated$930 an hour. Decrease the time from one hour to 10 minutes, and they would pay$3,250 per hour.

For driving range, consumers value each additional mile of range at about$75 per mile up to 200 miles, and$35 a mile from 200-300 miles. So, for example, if an electric vehicle has a range of 200 miles and an otherwise equivalent gasoline vehicle has a range of 300, people would require a price discount of about$3,500 for the electric version. That assumes everything else about the vehicle is the same, and clearly there is lower fuel cost with an electric vehicle and often better performance. So all the attributes have to be accounted for in the final analysis of any car.

"This information tells the car manufacturers what people are willing to pay for another unit of distance," Parsons said."It gives them guidance as to what cost levels they need to attain to make the cars competitive in the market."

The researchers found that battery costs would need to decrease substantially without subsidy and with current gas prices for electric cars to become competitive in the market. However, the researchers said, the current$7,500 government tax credit could bridge the gap between electric car costs and consumers' willingness to pay if battery costs decline to$300 a kilowatt hour, the projected 2014 cost level by the Department of Energy. Many analysts believe that goal is within reach.

The team's analysis could also help guide automakers' marketing efforts -- it showed that an individual's likelihood of buying an electric vehicle increases with characteristics such as youth, education and an environmental lifestyle. Income was not important.

In a second recently published study, UD researchers looked at electric vehicle driving range using second-by-second driving records. That study, which is based on a year of driving data from nearly 500 instrumented gasoline vehicles, showed that 9 percent of the vehicles never exceeded 100 miles in a day. For those who are willing to make adaptations six times a year -- borrow a gasoline car, for example -- the 100-mile range would work for 32 percent of drivers.

"It appears that even modest electric vehicles with today's limited battery range, if marketed correctly to segments with appropriate driving behavior, comprise a large enough market for substantial vehicle sales," the authors concluded.

Kempton, who published the driving patterns article with UD marine policy graduate student Nathaniel Pearre and colleagues at the Georgia Institute of Technology, pointed out that U.S. car sales are around 12 million in an average, non-recession year. Nine percent of that would be a million cars per year -- for comparison to current production, for example, Chevy plans to manufacture just 10,000 Volts in 2011.

By this measure, the potential market would justify many more plug-in cars than are currently being produced, Kempton said.

The findings of the two studies were reported online in March and February inResource and Energy EconomicsandTransportation Research, respectively.

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Saving Kenya's Lake Naivasha: Efforts to Improve Sustainability

World-renowned ecologist and conservationist Dr David Harper, from the University of Leicester Department of Biology and his PhD student Ed Morrison, recently showcased their latest work to the Prime Minister of Kenya.

The researchers have just returned from a successful field research visit to Kenya's Rift Valley. There, at Lake Naivasha, where Dr Harper has been researching for nearly 30 years, they were central to the launch of"Imarisha Naivasha" by the Kenyan Prime Minister, Raila Odinga.

Ed Morrison demonstrated briquette-making to the Kenyan Prime Minister in a practical fair of processes which help to save water and carbon. This charcoal-saving process, which Morrison is championing around Naivasha, makes fuel from waste paper, cardboard or plant material and, in a country where charcoal is the major source of energy, helps in a small way to save forests.

"Imarisha Naivasha" -- meaning"Empower Naivasha" -- is an initiative, backed by the Prince of Wales' Sustainability Trust, to try to coordinate local industries and communities with government agencies and international NGOs, to restore this damaged lake. Imarisha has come to fruition six years after David Harper first started raising the alarm about the lake's deteriorating ecology, based upon tell-tale signs that others had missed.

Dr Harper said:"It is very easy to come to Lake Naivasha as a visitor or journalist, see all the greenhouses around the lake and immediately just blame flower growing," he said."Local newspaper articles have blamed anything that goes wrong on pesticides from flowers, even though all the evidence shows flower growing to be a very well-controlled industry without risk. Articles have even talked about paint being thrown into the lake, because the water colour has changed. These are natural processes, but ones that have run riot because the lake is over-fertilised by people.

"The real cause of the lake's deterioration" says Harper,"is the same basic cause as everywhere else in the world -- too many people, also using up too much water and wasting most of it because they think it is free." The lake is 2 metres lower than it should be naturally because of water taken out -- but it is to run the taps of the cities, to power the greenest source of energy, a geothermal power station nearby and thousands of small-scale farmers in the catchment -- as well as to grow flowers. Flower growing is critically important to Kenya, it is the biggest earner of foreign exchange -- now above tourism and above coffee and tea. Over half of all roses sold in UK supermarkets come from Naivasha.

"The flower industry is conscientious about the water taken out, most particularly the growers who sell to European supermarkets, because they know that consumer groups can keep a check on the water they use as well as the conditions of their workers.

"Imarisha Naivasha" is the start of a better future for the lake. We are all really optimistic that it will encourage everybody to pull together, reduce their water use and give the lake a chance."

Harper added:"Two European supermarkets, REWE from Germany and Coop from Switzerland are leading the world, funding plans for ecological restoration of lake and wetlands, based upon my advice and that of my colleagues. I was also the major advisor to the Prince of Wales' Sustainability Unit from Clarence House, when they paid a fact-finding visit in September last year. I am very happy to see the fruits of my research now being used to guide the sustainable future of the lake.

"UK supermarkets should realise though, that they are being left behind by the Europeans. The Swiss and the Germans can see that, to make their supply chain sustainable, they need to put some profits back into ecological restoration. British supermarkets need to do more or they could lose the market in a few years time."

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Humanity Can and Must Do More With Less, Experts Urge

Citizens of developed countries consume an average of 16 tons (ranging up to 40 or more tons) of those four key resources per capita. By comparison, the average person in India today consumes four tons per year.

With the growth of both population and prosperity, especially in developing countries, the prospect of much higher resource consumption levels is"far beyond what is likely sustainable" if realized at all given finite world resources, warns the report by UNEP's International Resource Panel.

Already the world is running out of cheap and high quality sources of some essential materials such as oil, copper and gold, the supplies of which, in turn, require ever-rising volumes of fossil fuels and freshwater to produce.

Achieving a rate of resource productivity ("doing more with less") greater than the economic growth rate is the notion behind"decoupling," the panel says. That goal, however, demands an urgent rethink of the links between resource use and economic prosperity, buttressed by a massive investment in technological, financial and social innovation, to at least freeze per capita consumption in wealthy countries and help developing nations follow a more sustainable path.

The trend towards urbanization may help as well, experts note, since cities allow for economies of scale and more efficient service provision. Densely populated places consume fewer resources per capita than sparsely populated ones thanks to economies in such areas as water delivery, housing, waste management and recycling, energy use and transportation, they say.

"Decoupling makes sense on all the economic, social and environmental dials," says UN Under Secretary-General Achim Steiner, UNEP's Executive Director.

"People believe environmental 'bads' are the price we must pay for economic 'goods.' However, we cannot, and need not, continue to act as if this trade-off is inevitable," he says."Decoupling is part of a transition to a low carbon, resource efficient Green Economy needed in order to stimulate growth, generate decent kinds of employment and eradicate poverty in a way that keeps humanity's footprint within planetary boundaries."

"Next year's Rio+20 meeting represents an opportunity to accelerate and scale-up these 'green shoots' of a Green Economy, which are emerging across the developed and developing world."

The new report from UNEP's International Resource Panel, the fourth in a series, was launched in New York at the annual meeting of the UN Commission on Sustainable Development, where sustainable consumption and production are key issues. And it precedes by a year the global UN Conference on Sustainable Development 2012 meeting (or"Rio+20" in Rio de Janeiro 4-6 June 2012) with its two central themes of a Green Economy in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication, and achieving agreement on an international framework for sustainable development.

While the report doesn't offer detailed policy and technology options -- that's for later reports -- it says technologies that have helped humanity extract ever-greater quantities of natural resources need to be re-directed to more efficient ways of using them.

Global average annual per capita resource consumption in year 2000 was 8 to 10 tons, about double the rate of 1900. In 2000, the average rate in industrialized countries (home to one-fifth of world population) was roughly twice the global average and four or five times that of the poorest developing countries.

Global (and national) consumption rates per capita are calculated by dividing total world (and national) extractions of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass by world (and national) population figures.

Rapidly expanding international trade, however, obscures responsibility for resource consumption and associated environmental impacts, the authors note.

Over the past century, pollution controls and other measures have reduced the environmental impacts of economic growth. And, thanks to innovations in manufacturing, product design and energy use -- aided by the rising number of people living more efficient lifestyles in cities -- the global economy has grown faster than resource consumption growth.

Still, those improvements have only been relative. In absolute terms -- with population growth, continuing high levels of consumption in the industrialized countries, and increased demand for material goods, particularly in China, India, Brazil and other quickly-emerging economies -- total resource use grew eight-fold, from 6 billion tons in 1900 to 49 billion tons in 2000. It is now estimated at up to 59 billion tons.

Decoupling is occurring but"at a rate that is insufficient to meet the needs of an equitable and sustainable society," the report says. Between 1980 and 2002, the resources required per$1,000 (U.S.) of economic output fell from 2.1 to 1.6 tons.

The report details progress in four countries where government policy supports decoupling. Germany and Japan have both demonstrated the possibilities.

• Germany has established goals for energy and resource productivity -- aiming to double both by 2020. There are also ambitious 2020 targets for meeting heating, electricity and other energy needs from renewable sources, and the target of a 30 per cent cut in carbon dioxide emissions by that same year.
• Japan is committed to becoming a"Sustainable Society" focused on low carbon, the reduction, reuse and recycling of materials, and harmony with nature. The flow of materials is carefully accounted. Japan's measures"are probably the most advanced examples (of) increasing resource productivity and minimizing negative environmental impacts in practice," the report states.
• South Africa's Constitution requires"ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources." Policies explicitly call for"resource and impact decoupling" and greenhouse-gas emission cuts of 30 to 40 per cent by 2050. Progress, though, is undermined by a growing reliance on exports of coal and other minerals. Its carbon intensity is the world's highest and emissions per person are double the global average.
• China aims to build an"ecological civilization," with resource and environmental concerns top priorities. It has created decoupling indicators and fixed mandatory targets, including a 20 per cent reduction of energy intensity and has run nationwide energy saving and pollution-reduction programs. A National Action Plan on Climate Change targets a 40 to 45 per cent reduction in carbon dioxide intensity by 2020.

China, in particular, is a global test case,"because it wants to continue its rapid economic growth but use resources more sustainably," the report says.

"The measures that China introduces to reconcile these objectives will be of crucial significance for every other developing country with similar policy intentions."

The report emphasizes that cutting the rate of resource consumption and impacts is possible, in theory, if national economic improvement is defined in terms other than physical growth.

"It is time to recognize the limits to the natural resources available to support human development and economic growth," the authors say. Decoupling"will require significant changes in government policies, corporate behaviour, and consumption patterns by the public.… Innovation, even radical innovation, will be required."

The report describes three scenarios whereby developed and developing countries consume resources equitably: 'convergence by 2050'

Scenario 1: Business as usual in developed countries, convergence by others

Per capita resource consumption in the industrialized countries remains stable, as it has for the past three decades, and the rest of the world continues the current trend to catch up. This path leads to annual total consumption of 140 billion tons of minerals, ores, fossil fuels and biomass, or 16 tons per capita for a population of 9 billion, by 2050. Says the report: this"represents an unsustainable future in terms of both resource use and emissions, probably exceeding all possible measures of available resources and assessments of limits to the capacity to absorb impacts."

Scenario 2: moderate contraction of consumption in developed countries, convergence by others

Industrialized nations halve average per capita consumption to 8 tons and other countries rise to that level. The result: total world consumption of 70 billion tons in 2050."This scenario presupposes substantial structural change amounting to a new pattern of industrial production and consumption that would be quite different from the traditional resource-intensive Western industrial model," the report says.

This scenario results in global consumption of 70 billion tons by 2050 -- about 40% more annual resource extraction than in 2000. Average emissions of carbon dioxide per capita would rise almost 50% to 1.6 tons per capita and global CO2 emissions would more than double.

Absolute cuts in consumption -- well short of the scale required in scenario two -- have occurred in just a handful of countries, and in some cases only because they have lowered their per capita consumption rate by importing resources from elsewhere.

Scenario 3: tough contraction of consumption in developed countries, converging with others

Industrialized nations reduce per capita consumption by two thirds and other nations remain at current rates, resulting in a global per capita consumption rate of 6 tons and total world consumption of about 50 billion tons, the same as in year 2000.

This scenario would be so restrictive, and so unappealing to politicians, that it"can hardly be addressed as a possible strategic goal," the authors admit.

Yet, even such tough measures would maintain global consumption at levels many scientists still consider unsustainable. Average CO2 per capita emissions would be reduced by roughly 40% to 0.75 tons/capita and global emissions would remain constant at their 2000 level.

"These scenarios challenge our current thinking and assumptions about development," says the report."If investments in developing and developed countries are made today that lock humanity into a business-as-usual or moderately improved resource intensive growth path, the risks of running into ecological and supply constraints will worsen."

"This finding has spurred the International Resource Panel to focus future reports on how to improve resource productivity and find viable alternatives for policy makers."

Challenges ahead include:

• Policymakers and the general public aren't yet convinced of the absolute physical limits to the quantity of resources available for human use.
• The wide discrepancies in per person consumption mean different levels of action are required. Poorer nations, likely the first to feel the impacts of resource shortages, must have a chance to improve conditions in the developed world. But if they emulate a profligate style of growth, they not only expose their economies to supply constraints, the planet's resource bank will go far deeper into the red.
• The best and most easily accessible mineral ores and fossil fuels are being exhausted. New sources are generally more remote and of lower quality. Finding and extracting them takes more energy and increases the environmental impact. About three times more material needs to be moved for the same ore extraction as a century ago, with corresponding increases in land disruption, water impacts and energy use.
• Resource extraction increasingly occurs in countries with lower legal and environmental standards, meaning"environmental impacts per unit of extracted material might become more severe."
• As trade expands, it becomes more difficult to assign responsibility for resource consumption, a crucial consideration if each country is required to limit per capita consumption. Should the reduction of mining and its impacts, for example, be the responsibility of the country where the extraction takes place, the one where the ore is processed into a manufactured product, or the one where that product is consumed?
• A"rebound" effect often leads to increased consumption after energy or manufactured goods become more efficient as consumers take advantage of cost savings to buy something else, or use a device more often -- for example: putting more kilometres on a fuel-efficient car.

Reasons for optimism:

• According to the report, the certainty that resource shortages will eventually preclude business as usual ensures that any country"ahead of the game" by investing in innovation"will clearly reap the benefits when pressures mount for others to change rapidly."
• Developing countries, unburdened by existing technologies, can leapfrog to less resource-intensive processes and goods, as much of Africa has, for example, by bypassing hard-wired telephone services and moving directly to wireless.
• The rising cost of many resources creates an economic imperative to use less -- although, at the same time, higher prices could allow exploitation of more expensive, environmentally hazardous sources such as oil from the high Arctic.
• Urbanization can reduce a population's consumption rate since it makes the provision of services more efficient and"concentrate(s) the knowledge, financial, social and institutional resources required for sustainability oriented innovations." However, the consumption numbers for cities can be artificially low if the urban area depends on energy and resources from the surrounding countryside. In addition, urban dwellers consume more as the economy grows."This captures the dilemma of cities for sustainability," the report states."They drive the global unsustainable use of resources, but they are also where the greatest potential exists for sustainability-oriented innovations."
• Even today, there is a vast difference in resource use rate across countries, even those with the same GDP per capita. This indicates that it is possible for countries to be much more resource productive and still grow their economies.

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Water for Mongolia: How Vital Resource Can Be Efficiently Managed and Used

Mongolia is a country of contrasts– in summer boiling hot, in winter freezing cold; in the north damp, in the south bone dry. One million of its three million inhabitants live tightly packed together in the capital Ulaanbaatar, while the rest of the huge country is largely populated by nomads and their cattle. Providing a clean supply of drinking water across the entire country is a difficult challenge– beginning with the need to lay freeze-proof water pipes over an area of 1.5 million square kilometers. The people in the countryside therefore use water from rivers, or from wells that they dig themselves. But these traditional ways of obtaining water are reaching the limits of their capacity.

In recent decades the periods of rain during the summer months which replenish the reserves of groundwater have become infrequent. They have been replaced by heavy storms unleashing torrents of rain that runs off rapidly without soaking into the ground. At the same time, demand for water has risen with the rapid growth in the country’s population.

"Providing a supply of drinking water is becoming more and more difficult. To create a reliable supply in the long term you have to take many different factors into account and find out how they influence each other," explains Dr. Buren Scharaw from the Fraunhofer Application Center System Technology AST in Ilmenau. Born in Mongolia, he has been working for many years on the a project entitled"Integrated Water Resources Management for Central Asia: Model Region Mongolia", known also as MoMo. Project partners include the universities of Heidelberg and Kassel, Bauhaus University Weimar, the Helmholtz Center for Environmental Research, the Leibniz Institute for Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries and various private-sector enterprises. The model region under study by the research scientists is the catchment area for the Kharaa River and Darkhan, a city of 100,000 inhabitants.

Since the start of the project, in 2006, Scharaw has traveled back to his homeland several times. He has examined the quality of the water from public and private wells along with the distribution network, measured the energy consumption of pumps, and investigated the effectiveness of the sewage system. All of the data he has meanwhile collected has been fed into the computer models developed at Fraunhofer AST.

"Our HydroDyn water management solution makes it possible for the first time to visualize the quality as well as the quantity of water resources and to model their future development," the scientist explains. There is plenty of scope for improvement: the water pumps consume lots of energy, the water pipes are in need of repair and nearly half of the drinking water is lost on its way to the consumer because of leaks. Many yurts have their own wells, but the water is often contaminated with bacteria from latrines. What can be done?"Having collected data and produced models we are now preparing proposals that make sense in economical and ecological terms", says Scharaw. His team has developed a software program for the purpose which can determine how the water supply can be sustainably secured using less energy.

To minimize the losses in the drinking water distribution network, the Fraunhofer research scientists have also developed a measuring system for locating leaks. Small sensors detect any drop in pressure in the pipes, enabling leakes to be localized with relatively high precision. Once the leak has been found, that section of the pipe can be repaired.

To reduce contamination in the water supply, and to increase the efficiency of the sewage system, the MoMo scientists are now building a test sewage plant which contains microorganisms in high concentration:"We expect this test facility to deliver good results also during the cold season when the microorganisms are less active. The findings can then be transferred to a future full-scale plant." In three years’ time, when the MoMo project has been completed, the experts intend to present the government administration in Darkhan with a catalogue of measures which will show how the water supply and sewage system can be efficiently and cost-effectively secured. Scharaw regards it as one of his major successes that he prompted the Mongolian authorities to discontinue mining operations in some regions of the Kharaa catchment area– an achievement that extends far beyond improving the drinking water supply in Darkhan.

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It's Not Easy Flying Green: Large Variability in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Alternative Fuels

However, researchers at MIT say the industry may want to cool its jets and make sure it has examined biofuels' complete carbon footprint before making an all-out push. They say that when a biofuel's origins are factored in -- for example, taking into account whether the fuel is made from palm oil grown in a clear-cut rainforest -- conventional fossil fuels may sometimes be the"greener" choice.

"What we found was that technologies that look very promising could also result in high emissions, if done improperly," says James Hileman, principal research engineer in the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, who has published the results of a study conducted with MIT graduate students Russell Stratton and Hsin Min Wong in the online version of the journalEnvironmental Science and Technology."You can't simply say a biofuel is good or bad -- it depends on how it's produced and processed, and that's part of the debate that hasn't been brought forward."

Hileman and his team performed a life-cycle analysis of 14 fuel sources, including conventional petroleum-based jet fuel and"drop-in" biofuels: alternatives that can directly replace conventional fuels with little or no change to existing infrastructure or vehicles. In a previous report for the Federal Aviation Administration's Partnership for Air Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction, they calculated the emissions throughout the life cycle of a biofuel,"from well to wake" -- from acquiring the biomass to transporting it to converting it to fuel, as well as its combustion.

"All those processes require energy," Hileman says,"and that ends up in the release of carbon dioxide."

In the currentEnvironmental Science and Technologypaper, Hileman considered the entire biofuel life cycle of diesel engine fuel compared with jet fuel, and found that changing key parameters can dramatically change the total greenhouse gas emissions from a given biofuel.

Land-locked

In particular, the team found that emissions varied widely depending on the type of land used to grow biofuel components such as soy, palm and rapeseed. For example, Hileman and his team calculated that biofuels derived from palm oil emitted 55 times more carbon dioxide if the palm oil came from a plantation located in a converted rainforest rather than a previously cleared area. Depending on the type of land used, biofuels could ultimately emit 10 times more carbon dioxide than conventional fuel.

"Severe cases of land-use change could make coal-to-liquid fuels look green," says Hileman, noting that by conventional standards,"coal-to-liquid is not a green option."

Hileman says the airline industry needs to account for such scenarios when thinking about how to scale up biofuel production. The problem, he says, is not so much the technology to convert biofuels: Companies like Choren and Rentech have successfully built small-scale biofuel production facilities and are looking to expand in the near future. Rather, Hileman says the challenge is in allocating large swaths of land to cultivate enough biomass, in a sustainable fashion, to feed the growing demand for biofuels.

He says one solution to the land-use problem may be to explore crops like algae and salicornia that don't require deforestation or fertile soil to grow. Scientists are exploring these as a fuel source, particularly since they also do not require fresh water.

Feeding the tank

Total emissions from biofuel production may also be mitigated by a biofuel's byproducts. For example, the process of converting jatropha to biofuel also yields solid biomass: For every kilogram of jatropha oil produced, 0.8 kilograms of meal, 1.1 kilograms of shells and 1.7 kilograms of husks are created. These co-products could be used to produce electricity, for animal feed or as fertilizer. Hileman says that this is a great example of how co-products can have a large impact on the carbon dioxide emissions of a fuel.

Hileman says his analysis is one lens through which policymakers can view biofuel production. In making decisions on how to build infrastructure and resources to support a larger biofuel economy, he says researchers also need to look at the biofuel life cycle in terms of cost and yield.

"We need to have fuels that can be made at an economical price, and at large quantity," Hileman says."Greenhouse gases {are} just part of the equation, and there's a lot of interesting work going on in this field."

The study is the culmination of four years of research by Hileman, Stratton and Wong. The work was funded by the Federal Aviation Administration and Air Force Research Labs.

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Algae Could Replace 17 Percent of US Oil Imports

However, a new study shows that being smart about where we grow algae can drastically reduce how much water is needed for algal biofuel. Growing algae for biofuel, while being water-wise, could also help meet congressionally mandated renewable fuel targets by replacing 17 percent of the nation's imported oil for transportation, according to a paper published in the journalWater Resources Research.

Researchers at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory found that water use is much less if algae are grown in the U.S. regions that have the sunniest and most humid climates: the Gulf Coast, the Southeastern Seaboard and the Great Lakes.

"Algae has been a hot topic of biofuel discussions recently, but no one has taken such a detailed look at how much America could make -- and how much water and land it would require -- until now," said Mark Wigmosta, lead author and a PNNL hydrologist."This research provides the groundwork and initial estimates needed to better inform renewable energy decisions."

Algal biofuel can be made by extracting and refining the oils, called lipids, that algae produce as they grow. Policy makers and researchers are interested in developing biofuels because they can create fewer overall greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuels. And biofuels can be made here in the United States. In 2009, slightly more than half of the petroleum consumed by the U.S. was from foreign oil.

Wigmosta and his co-authors provide the first in-depth assessment of America's algal biofuel potential given available land and water. The study also estimated how much water would need to be replaced due to evaporation over 30 years. The team analyzed previously published data to determine how much algae can be grown in open, outdoor ponds of fresh water while using current technologies. Algae can also be grown in salt water and covered ponds. But the authors focused on open, freshwater ponds as a benchmark for this study. Much of today's commercial algae production is done in open ponds.

Crunching the numbers

First, the scientists developed a comprehensive national geographic information system database that evaluated topography, population, land use and other information about the contiguous United States. That database contained information spaced every 100 feet throughout the U.S., which is a much more detailed view than previous research. This data allowed them to identify available areas that are better suited for algae growth, such as those with flat land that isn't used for farming and isn't near cities or environmentally sensitive areas like wetlands or national parks.

Next, the researchers gathered 30 years of meteorological information. That helped them determine the amount of sunlight that algae could realistically photosynthesize and how warm the ponds would become. Combined with a mathematical model on how much typical algae could grow under those specific conditions, the weather data allowed Wigmosta and team to calculate the amount of algae that could realistically be produced hourly at each specific site.

Water for oil

The researchers found that 21 billion gallons of algal oil, equal to the 2022 advanced biofuels goal set out by the Energy Independence and Security Act, can be produced with American-grown algae. That's 17 percent of the petroleum that the U.S. imported in 2008 for transportation fuels, and it could be grown on land roughly the size of South Carolina. But the authors also found that 350 gallons of water per gallon of oil -- or a quarter of what the country currently uses for irrigated agriculture -- would be needed to produce that much algal biofuel.

The study also showed that up to 48 percent of the current transportation oil imports could be replaced with algae, though that higher production level would require significantly more water and land. So the authors focused their research on the U.S. regions that would use less water to grow algae, those with the nation's sunniest and most humid climates.

But the authors also found that algae's water use isn't that different from most other biofuel sources. While considering the gas efficiency of a standard light-utility vehicle, they estimated growing algae uses anywhere between 8.6 and 50.2 gallons of water per mile driven on algal biofuel. In comparison, data from previously published research indicated that corn ethanol can be made with less water, but showed a larger usage range: between 0.6 and 61.9 gallons of water per mile driven. Several factors -- including the differing water needs of specific growing regions and the different assumptions and methods used by various researchers -- cause the estimates to range greatly, they found.

Because conventional petroleum gas doesn't need to be grown like algae or corn, it doesn't need as much water. Previously published data indicated conventional gas uses between about 0.09 and 0.3 gallons of water per mile.

More to consider

Looking beyond freshwater, the authors noted algae has several advantages over other biofuel sources. For example, algae can produce more than 80 times more oil than corn per hectare a year. And unlike corn and soybeans, algae aren't a widespread food source that many people depend on for nutrition. As carbon dioxide-consuming organisms, algae are considered a carbon-neutral energy source. Algae can feed off carbon emissions from power plants, delaying the emissions' entry into the atmosphere. Algae also digest nitrogen and phosphorus, which are common water pollutants. That means algae can also grow in -- and clean -- municipal waste water.

"Water is an important consideration when choosing a biofuel source," Wigmosta said."And so are many other factors. Algae could be part of the solution to the nation's energy puzzle -- if we're smart about where we place growth ponds and the technical challenges to achieving commercial-scale algal biofuel production are met."

Next up for Wigmosta and his colleagues is to examine non-freshwater sources like salt water and waste water. They are also researching greenhouse ponds for use in colder climates, as well as economic considerations for algal biofuel production.

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NSF Announces New Awards That Will Investigate More Efficient Ways to Harvest Sunlight

Photosynthesis allows biological systems to use sunlight and carbon dioxide to produce sugars and oxygen. This process is ultimately responsible for the food we eat and the fossil fuels we burn today.

Four transatlantic research teams will explore ways to overcome limitations in photosynthesis that could lead to the development of new methods for significantly increasing the yields of important crops for food production and/or sustainable bioenergy.

The funding agencies used a novel method called an"Ideas Lab" that led to these awards. Ideas Labs are based on the"Sandpit" concept initially developed by the Engineering and Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC) and are designed to stimulate new conversations about old problems.

In September 2010, an Ideas Lab was held in Asilomar, Calif. that focused on stimulating thinking in promising new, or currently under-developed, research areas relevant to photosynthesis. The workshop's goals were to develop innovative and transformative ideas on how to enhance photosynthesis through a multi-disciplinary approach and to bring together researchers to explore new and exciting avenues for future research in photosynthesis across all disciplines.

The result was the generation and real-time review of high-risk but potentially high-impact proposals for increasing the efficiency of photosynthesis.

NSF and the BBRC are now releasing four awards for proposals--each of which addresses a different bottleneck in photosynthesis--that were produced through the alternative approach pioneered at the Ideas Lab. NSF is contributing a total of$5.2 million to support U.S. participants in these projects.

"Photosynthesis is essential for life on Earth," said Joann Roskoski, NSF's acting assistant director for Biological Sciences."By providing food and generating oxygen, it has made our planet hospitable for life. This process is also critical in addressing the food and fuel challenges of the future. For decades, NSF has invested in photosynthesis research projects that range from biophysical studies to ecosystem analyses at a macroscale. The Ideas Lab in photosynthesis was an opportunity to stimulate and support different types of projects than what we have in our portfolio in order to address a critical bottleneck to enhancing the photosynthetic process."

BBSRC's Director of Research Janet Allen said,"Photosynthesis has evolved in plants, algae and some other bacteria and in each case the mechanism does the best possible job for the organism in question. However, there are trade-offs in nature which mean that photosynthesis is not as efficient as it could be--at around only five percent, depending on how it is measured. There is scope to improve it for processes useful to us by, for example, increasing the amount of food crop or energy biomass a plant can produce from the same amount of sunlight. This is hugely ambitious research but if the scientists we are supporting can achieve their aims it will be a profound achievement."

Joanne Tornow, NSF's acting executive officer for Biological Sciences added that"The Ideas Lab is an innovative method for generating new ideas and building new teams of researchers that will undertake potentially transformative projects in areas of high impact, such as photosynthesis. Although NSF's award portfolio is already filled with exciting investments that hold great potential for advancing the frontiers of knowledge, trying new approaches could result in expanding the portfolio in new and unanticipated ways."

The four projects that were selected for funding at the Ideas Lab will conclude in about three years.

"The world faces significant challenges in the coming decades--and chief among these is producing enough sustainable and affordable food for a growing population and replacing diminishing fossil fuels," said Allen."Even a small change to the efficiency of photosynthesis would make a huge impact on these problems. As these are global challenges, it is apt that we are working across national and scientific boundaries to put together truly international and multidisciplinary research teams."

When the four funded projects conclude, the two funding agencies will examine the approaches taken by these projects for addressing photosynthetic energy in order to determine whether the Ideas Lab approach realized its potential to generate novel and potentially transformative outcomes.

Summaries of the four funded projects follow:

1. Plug and Play Photosynthesis led by Anne Jones of Arizona State University: This project is designed to separate the capture and conversion of solar energy into fuel--processes that may be completed by a single cell--into two different organisms that would communicate with one another through electrical currents flowing between them. This separation of photosynthetic processes into different organisms will enable researchers to optimize environments for each of these processes and thereby improve their efficiency.
2. Exploiting Prokaryotic Proteins to Improve Plant Photosynthesis Efficiency (EPP) led by Stephen Long of the University of Illinois: A metabolic process known as photorespiration reduces the yields of plants including major crops, such as soy, wheat and rice, by an estimated 20 percent to 50 percent. Some blue-green algae have protein structures, called carboxysomes, that reduce such losses. This research aims to adapt and engineer these protein structures into crop plants to minimize photorespiration and boost yield.
3. Multi-Level Approaches for Generating Carbon Dioxide (MAGIC) led by John Golbeck of Pennsylvania State University: Through this project, researchers will attach to the membranes of photosynthesizing cells special proteins that will pump carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into cells. Resulting increases in the availability of carbon dioxide inside these cells will inhibit photorespiration and promote photosynthesis.
4. Combining Algal and Plant Photosynthesis (CAPP) led by Martin Jonikas of Stanford University: The unicellular green alga Chlamydomonas has a pyrenoid--a ball-shaped structure within the cell that helps this algae assimilate carbon to improve its photosynthetic efficiency. The goal of this project is to characterize the pyrenoid and associated components, and transfer them to higher plants in order to improve their photosynthetic efficiency.

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Solar Power Systems Could Lighten the Load for British Soldiers

With the aim of being up to fifty per cent lighter than conventional chemical battery packs used by British infantry, the solar and thermoelectric-powered system could make an important contribution to future military operations.

The project is being developed by the University of Glasgow with Loughborough, Strathclyde, Leeds, Reading and Brunel Universities, with funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC). It is also supported by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl).

The system's innovative combination of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, thermoelectric devices and leading-edge energy storage technology will provide a reliable power supply round-the-clock, just like a normal battery pack. The team is also investigating ways of managing, storing and utilising heat produced by the system.

Because it is much lighter, the system will improve soldiers' mobility. Moreover, by eliminating the need to return to base regularly to recharge batteries, it will increase the potential range and duration of infantry operations. It will also absorb energy across the electromagnetic spectrum, making infantry less liable to detection by night vision equipment that uses infra-red technology, for instance.

Minister for Universities and Science David Willetts said:"The armed forces often need to carry around a huge amount of kit and the means to power it. It's great that specialists from a range of science disciplines are coming together to develop lighter, more reliable technology that will help to make life easier for them in the field."

Although substantial research into solar power for soldiers has already been conducted worldwide, this new UK project differs in its use of thermoelectric devices to complement solar cells, delivering genuine 24/7 power generation capability. The project team is also investigating how both types of device could actually be woven into soldiers' battle dress, which has never been done before.

During the day, the solar cells will produce electricity to power equipment. During the night, the thermoelectric devices will take over and perform the same function. The system will also incorporate advanced energy storage devices to ensure electricity is always available on a continuous basis.

"Infantry need electricity for weapons, radios, global positioning systems and many other vital pieces of equipment," says Professor Duncan Gregory of the University of Glasgow."Batteries can account for over ten per cent of the 45-70kg of equipment that infantry currently carry. By aiding efficiency and comfort, the new system could play a valuable role in ensuring the effectiveness of army operations."

PV cells, thermoelectric devices and advanced energy storage devices are already widely used in a range of applications. A key aim of the project team, however, is to produce robust, hard-wearing designs specifically for military use in tough, hostile conditions.

Because it will harness clean, free energy sources, the new power system will also offer significant environmental advantages compared with the conventional battery packs currently used by the British army.

To tackle the many challenges that the project presents, the team includes specialists from a wide range of disciplines including chemistry, materials science, process engineering, electrical engineering and design. Feedback from serving soldiers will also play a crucial role in optimising the power system for front-line use.

"We aim to produce a prototype system within two years," says Professor Gregory."We also anticipate that the technology that we develop could be adapted for other and very varied uses. One possibility is in niche space applications for powering satellites, another could be to provide means to transport medicines or supplies at cool temperatures in disaster areas or to supply fresh food in difficult economic or climatic conditions."

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U.S. Security Experts Help Kazakhstan Safely Transport, Store Soviet-Era Bomb Materials

Sandia provided security and logistics expertise to complete the transfer across Kazakhstan of spent fuel containing 11 tons (10 metric tons) of highly enriched uranium and 3.3 tons (3 metric tons) of weapons-grade plutonium that had been stored in a BN-350 fast-breeder reactor in the busy Caspian Sea port of Aktau in western Kazakhstan, said Dave Barber, who worked for Sandia's Global Physical Security Program at the time.

"We're making things safer in the world," Barber said."Before it was protected, the materials were vulnerable to theft by those who would steal them to build nuclear weapons. This project has secured enough material to make 775 nuclear weapons. That gives us a great feeling and should make people feel much better."

The removal of the weapons-grade materials marks the completion of 14 years of work that began at Sandia in 1996.

The last concrete and steel cask was transferred to a long-term storage facility in northeast Kazakhstan on Nov. 18. The 1,860-mile journey to get the casks to their resting place there would be like traveling from Washington, D.C., to Albuquerque through a sparsely populated, moonscape-like steppe.

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) oversaw the project as part of its Global Threat Reduction Initiative (Photos here). In addition to Sandia, NNSA's team included Idaho, Los Alamos, Oak Ridge and Pacific Northwest national laboratories, the U.S. Defense and State departments, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the International Atomic Energy Agency, several contractors and the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan and Russia.

Sandia protected the fuel while it was stored at the BN-350 reactor and at a temporary, outdoor concrete storage pad in Aktau; along a journey by train across Kazakhstan to Kurchatov; while it was at another interim storage pad there; and along a truck route to a long-term concrete storage pad in northeast Kazakhstan.

Sandia conducted vulnerability studies that Barber used to brief Congress, the Pentagon, and members of the National Security Council.

Sandia, in conjunction with Albuquerque-based Technology Management Co., also provided extensive travel and international field logistics for the project, Barber said.

"The United States was very worried about this material not being protected well enough and that it could be stolen, so the United States offered to protect this material," Barber said."In the interior, it would be much more difficult for adversaries to try to steal it."

The BN-350 at the Mangistau Atomic Energy Complex, which started operations in 1973, produced plutonium for the former Soviet Union's weapons program. The plant also provided 135 megawatts of electricity, 9 million gallons of water per day and steam for hot water and heating for Aktau. Since it was shut down by the Kazakh government in 1999, gas turbines generate the power, desalination of water and steam for the region.

The reactor sits on the eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. The bustling port is a point of departure for ships carrying oil from Kazakhstan to Baku, Azerbaijan, where it enters pipelines that take it to Europe.

The fuel rods were placed into canisters, which were then put into 60 100-ton concrete and stainless steel casks. The casks were stored on a pad outside the reactor before being loaded into shipping containers to make the four-day train journey to Kurchatov, where they would be unloaded and placed onto trucks for the trip to their long-term storage facility.

Sandia worked with Kazakhstan's Ministry of Interior troops, providing them with technical advice, communications equipment and other support, Barber said.

To make sure all would go smoothly, in December 2009, Barber was one of three Americans who traveled on the train during a dry run to ensure that the security plan worked, that the loading and unloading of the casks went off without a hitch and that communications were reliable.

John Franklin of Sandia's National Security Studies Department researched options for procuring two railcars that carried guards on the train, one serving as a backup in case the other was hit. Before the train left, rail crews checked the thousands of miles of tracks for explosives. The trains were given top priority as they crossed the country, Barber said.

During that four-day train ride, Barber said he looked for changes in the terrain that adversaries could use to attack the trains along the route. He needn't have worried.

"What we found was that one end of Kazakhstan looks much like the other end. It was very flat, no real hills, few trees," he says."We could count the number of trees."

The real runs started in February, and the dozen trips from Aktau to Kurchatov and then to the final location went smoothly, Barber said.

"There were no incidents during the hot runs when we had the fuel in there," Barber said."We count that as a success."

Sandia National Laboratories is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration. With main facilities in Albuquerque, N.M., and Livermore, Calif., Sandia has major R&D responsibilities in national security, energy and environmental technologies, and economic competitiveness.

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Pollution Controls Used During China Olympics Could Save Lives If Continued, Study Concludes

This might translate to about 10,000 fewer lifetime cases of lung cancer in this large metropolitan area, scientists said, which is only one of several in China that have unhealthy levels of air pollution, largely from the burning of coal, biomass and automobile exhaust in a rapidly growing economy.

The findings were published inEnvironmental Health Perspectives, a professional journal, by researchers from Oregon State University and Peking University in Beijing. This is one of the first studies to actually study the health benefits of pollution control strategies in a Chinese population.

The research looked at the chemical composition and carcinogenic impact of a range of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, or PAHs -- a group of compounds that result from almost any type of combustion, ranging from a wood stove to a coal-fired power plant or an automobile's exhaust.

PAHs are known pollutants that have been of declining concern in the United States due to pollution controls and the move to cleaner forms of energy production, but are making a huge comeback in the developing world with the advent of industrialization, population growth and heavy use of fossil fuels.

Other OSU research has also found that the level of pollutants in some Asian nations is now so high that PAH compounds are crossing the Pacific Ocean and being deposited in the U.S., even in remote areas. China is now the leading emitter of PAH pollutants in the world, followed by India and the United States.

"PAH pollution was definitely reduced by the actions China took during the 2008 Olympics, such as restricting vehicle use, decreasing coal combustion and closing some pollution-emitting factories," said Staci Simonich, an associate professor of chemistry and environmental toxicology at OSU."That's a positive step, and it shows that if such steps were continued it could lead to a significant reduction in cancer risk from these types of pollutants."

Some, but not all, of the steps taken during the Olympics have been continued, the researchers said, including some reductions in coal-burning emissions and other measures.

Other issues are more problematic. The number of vehicles in Beijing, for instance, is continuing to increase 13 percent a year, the report noted."Controlling vehicle emissions is key to reducing the inhalation cancer risks due to PAH exposure in Chinese megacities," the researchers wrote in their study.

Outdoor air pollution is a major health concern in China, the researchers said in their report. Associated health care costs are possibly as high as 3.8 percent of the nation's gross domestic product, according to the World Bank.

It's been estimated that 300,000 people a year die in China from heart disease and lung cancer associated with ambient air pollution, including PAHs.

This research found that in Beijing, a metropolitan area with 22 million people, the existing level of PAH pollution would lead to about 21,200 lifetime cases of lung cancer, but that would drop to 11,400 cases if pollution controls similar to those imposed during the 2008 Olympics were sustained.

"This is definitely a health concern and one that deserves attention in China by both the government and public," said Yuling Jia, a postdoctoral research associate at OSU and co-author on this study.

"It's also worth noting that the leading PAH emitter in rural China is not automobiles or things like coal-fired power plants, but the biomass burning associated with many other local activities, such as wood fuel used for cooking or heating, or the burning of agricultural fields," Jia said."All of this needs to be considered."

Another factor on an individual level, the researchers said, is that some people are more vulnerable to PAH inhalation than others, due to their genetics, behavioral issues such as smoking, or occupation.

This study was supported by the National Science Foundation in the U.S., the National Science Foundation of China, and the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences. It is one outgrowth of a recent,$12.4 million Superfund Basic Research Program Grant from NIEHS to OSU to study the health risks and impacts of PAH exposure.

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World Can Be Powered by Alternative Energy, Using Today's Technology, in 20-40 Years, Experts Say

According to a new study coauthored by Stanford researcher Mark Z. Jacobson, we could accomplish all that by converting the world to clean, renewable energy sources and forgoing fossil fuels.

"Based on our findings, there are no technological or economic barriers to converting the entire world to clean, renewable energy sources," said Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering."It is a question of whether we have the societal and political will."

He and Mark Delucchi, of the University of California-Davis, have written a two-part paper inEnergy Policyin which they assess the costs, technology and material requirements of converting the planet, using a plan they developed.

The world they envision would run largely on electricity. Their plan calls for using wind, water and solar energy to generate power, with wind and solar power contributing 90 percent of the needed energy.

Geothermal and hydroelectric sources would each contribute about 4 percent in their plan (70 percent of the hydroelectric is already in place), with the remaining 2 percent from wave and tidal power.

Vehicles, ships and trains would be powered by electricity and hydrogen fuel cells. Aircraft would run on liquid hydrogen. Homes would be cooled and warmed with electric heaters -- no more natural gas or coal -- and water would be preheated by the sun.

Commercial processes would be powered by electricity and hydrogen. In all cases, the hydrogen would be produced from electricity. Thus, wind, water and sun would power the world.

The researchers approached the conversion with the goal that by 2030, all new energy generation would come from wind, water and solar, and by 2050, all pre-existing energy production would be converted as well.

"We wanted to quantify what is necessary in order to replace all the current energy infrastructure -- for all purposes -- with a really clean and sustainable energy infrastructure within 20 to 40 years," said Jacobson.

One of the benefits of the plan is that it results in a 30 percent reduction in world energy demand since it involves converting combustion processes to electrical or hydrogen fuel cell processes. Electricity is much more efficient than combustion.

That reduction in the amount of power needed, along with the millions of lives saved by the reduction in air pollution from elimination of fossil fuels, would help keep the costs of the conversion down.

"When you actually account for all the costs to society -- including medical costs -- of the current fuel structure, the costs of our plan are relatively similar to what we have today," Jacobson said.

One of the biggest hurdles with wind and solar energy is that both can be highly variable, which has raised doubts about whether either source is reliable enough to provide"base load" energy, the minimum amount of energy that must be available to customers at any given hour of the day.

Jacobson said that the variability can be overcome.

"The most important thing is to combine renewable energy sources into a bundle," he said."If you combine them as one commodity and use hydroelectric to fill in gaps, it is a lot easier to match demand."

Wind and solar are complementary, Jacobson said, as wind often peaks at night and sunlight peaks during the day. Using hydroelectric power to fill in the gaps, as it does in our current infrastructure, allows demand to be precisely met by supply in most cases. Other renewable sources such as geothermal and tidal power can also be used to supplement the power from wind and solar sources.

"One of the most promising methods of insuring that supply matches demand is using long-distance transmission to connect widely dispersed sites," said Delucchi. Even if conditions are poor for wind or solar energy generation in one area on a given day, a few hundred miles away the winds could be blowing steadily and the sun shining.

"With a system that is 100 percent wind, water and solar, you can't use normal methods for matching supply and demand. You have to have what people call a supergrid, with long-distance transmission and really good management," he said.

Another method of meeting demand could entail building a bigger renewable-energy infrastructure to match peak hourly demand and use the off-hours excess electricity to produce hydrogen for the industrial and transportation sectors.

Using pricing to control peak demands, a tool that is used today, would also help.

Jacobson and Delucchi assessed whether their plan might run into problems with the amounts of material needed to build all the turbines, solar collectors and other devices.

They found that even materials such as platinum and the rare earth metals, the most obvious potential supply bottlenecks, are available in sufficient amounts. And recycling could effectively extend the supply.

"For solar cells there are different materials, but there are so many choices that if one becomes short, you can switch," Jacobson said."Major materials for wind energy are concrete and steel and there is no shortage of those."

Jacobson and Delucchi calculated the number of wind turbines needed to implement their plan, as well as the number of solar plants, rooftop photovoltaic cells, geothermal, hydroelectric, tidal and wave-energy installations.

They found that to power 100 percent of the world for all purposes from wind, water and solar resources, the footprint needed is about 0.4 percent of the world's land (mostly solar footprint) and the spacing between installations is another 0.6 percent of the world's land (mostly wind-turbine spacing), Jacobson said.

One of the criticisms of wind power is that wind farms require large amounts of land, due to the spacing required between the windmills to prevent interference of turbulence from one turbine on another.

"Most of the land between wind turbines is available for other uses, such as pasture or farming," Jacobson said."The actual footprint required by wind turbines to power half the world's energy is less than the area of Manhattan." If half the wind farms were located offshore, a single Manhattan would suffice.

Jacobson said that about 1 percent of the wind turbines required are already in place, and a lesser percentage for solar power.

"This really involves a large scale transformation," he said."It would require an effort comparable to the Apollo moon project or constructing the interstate highway system."

"But it is possible, without even having to go to new technologies," Jacobson said."We really need to just decide collectively that this is the direction we want to head as a society."

Jacobson is the director of Stanford's Atmosphere/Energy Program and a senior fellow at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment and the Precourt Institute for Energy.

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US Does Not Have Infrastructure to Consume More Ethanol, Study Finds

Wally Tyner, the James and Lois Ackerman Professor of Agricultural Economics, and co-authors Frank Dooley, a Purdue professor of agricultural economics, and Daniela Viteri, a former Purdue graduate student, used U.S. Department of Energy and Environmental Protection Agency data to determine that the United States is at the"blending wall," the saturation point for ethanol use. Without new technology or a significant increase in infrastructure, Tyner predicts that the country will not be able to consume more ethanol than is being currently produced.

The federal Renewable Fuel Standard requires an increase of renewable fuel production to 36 billion gallons per year by 2022. About 13 billion gallons of renewable fuel was required for 2010, the same amount Tyner predicts is the threshold for U.S. infrastructure and consumption ability.

"You can't get there with ethanol," said Tyner, whose findings were published in the December issue of theAmerican Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Tyner said there simply aren't enough flex-fuel vehicles, which use an 85 percent ethanol blend, or E85 stations to distribute more biofuels. According to EPA estimates, flex-fuel vehicles make up 7.3 million of the 240 million vehicles on the nation's roads. Of those, about 3 million of flex-fuel vehicle owners aren't even aware they can use E85 fuel.

There are only about 2,000 E85 fuel pumps in the United States, and it took more than 20 years to install them.

"Even if you could produce a whole bunch of E85, there is no way to distribute it," Tyner said."We would need to install about 2,000 pumps per year through 2022 to do it. You're not going to go from 100 per year to 2,000 per year overnight. It's just not going to happen."

And even if the fuel could be distributed, E85 would have to be substantially cheaper than gasoline to entice consumers to use it because E85 gets lower mileage, Tyner said. If gasoline were$3 per gallon, E85 would have to be$2.34 per gallon to break even on mileage.

There is talk of increasing the maximum amount of ethanol that can be blended with gasoline for regular vehicles from 10 percent to 15 percent. But Tyner said that even if the EPA does allow it, the blending wall would be reached again in about four years.

Tyner said advances in the production of thermo-chemical biofuels, which are created by using heat to chemically alter biomass and create fuels, would be necessary to meet the Renewable Fuel Standard. He said those fuels would be similar enough to gasoline to allow unlimited blending and would increase the amount of biofuel that could be used.

"Producing the hydrocarbons directly doesn't have the infrastructure problems of ethanol, and there is no blend wall because you're producing gasoline," Tyner said."If that comes on and works, then we get there. There is significant potential to produce drop-in hydrocarbons from cellulosic feedstocks."

The U.S. Department of Agriculture funded Tyner's research.

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